* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 48 56 60 64 69 70 76 80 84 85 87 88 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 48 56 60 64 65 57 37 38 42 37 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 44 48 52 57 60 60 38 38 45 43 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 16 21 19 9 5 2 4 9 8 10 11 15 8 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -3 0 0 4 7 1 0 0 -3 -1 0 -2 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 16 13 2 357 360 318 342 300 9 12 25 300 294 260 275 252 54 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.4 29.4 29.8 30.8 30.0 29.6 29.0 29.0 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 153 155 151 145 146 151 160 160 166 171 169 160 150 149 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 159 153 155 151 145 146 151 160 158 161 171 157 146 138 136 130 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 14 12 11 9 9 8 10 10 10 10 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 45 42 44 48 50 57 61 69 74 78 74 75 74 75 79 83 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 11 11 10 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 58 60 69 59 60 59 71 34 36 9 24 28 42 66 85 91 200 MB DIV 29 14 -4 -14 -14 30 72 86 51 47 1 16 42 31 42 65 62 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -3 -2 2 -6 8 -2 3 1 0 -1 -2 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 289 306 338 290 214 251 347 311 37 57 -21 -114 56 128 -13 -61 -81 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.5 16.3 17.2 18.2 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.1 63.9 65.6 67.5 69.3 73.1 76.8 80.3 83.4 86.1 88.4 90.2 92.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 18 18 18 19 17 16 15 13 11 10 8 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 50 39 31 73 61 33 72 51 41 49 62 6 32 27 20 20 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 35. 38. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 21. 25. 29. 34. 35. 41. 45. 49. 50. 52. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 62.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.83 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.80 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 18.6% 12.0% 8.7% 8.5% 11.8% 16.9% 33.6% Logistic: 14.6% 25.4% 20.3% 7.7% 4.6% 14.8% 14.9% 33.6% Bayesian: 1.9% 20.2% 11.1% 0.3% 0.2% 8.0% 11.3% 40.6% Consensus: 7.7% 21.4% 14.5% 5.6% 4.4% 11.5% 14.4% 35.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 43 48 56 60 64 65 57 37 38 42 37 31 28 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 45 53 57 61 62 54 34 35 39 34 28 25 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 40 48 52 56 57 49 29 30 34 29 23 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 40 44 48 49 41 21 22 26 21 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT