* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 41 46 54 61 68 66 68 70 74 79 78 80 81 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 41 46 54 61 68 66 68 47 33 36 31 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 43 47 52 56 58 62 45 32 34 33 41 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 14 21 16 12 4 4 9 15 13 15 6 18 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -1 7 1 -3 -1 2 0 0 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 17 19 19 358 351 347 337 286 315 333 352 348 355 346 326 313 313 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 28.9 28.9 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.8 29.8 30.4 29.3 29.0 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 153 153 144 147 146 152 155 166 165 171 155 147 157 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 161 161 153 153 144 147 146 152 154 161 158 170 142 130 144 149 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -53.2 -52.3 -53.1 -52.5 -53.4 -52.5 -53.2 -52.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 13 12 12 13 11 10 8 10 8 10 8 11 8 10 9 700-500 MB RH 49 47 45 46 48 56 62 68 72 78 77 78 77 77 79 80 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 15 13 15 16 17 11 11 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 64 59 56 64 58 63 79 55 43 27 32 30 24 47 50 45 200 MB DIV 18 44 31 -2 -8 14 28 54 68 91 45 43 54 49 54 48 39 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 0 -2 1 0 -3 1 -6 -4 2 1 3 4 13 3 LAND (KM) 256 273 289 322 285 169 342 358 133 12 77 -120 -100 43 -13 60 227 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.3 62.0 63.8 65.5 67.3 71.1 74.9 78.6 82.0 85.1 87.6 89.4 91.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 18 18 19 17 16 14 10 9 9 6 1 6 10 HEAT CONTENT 58 50 39 29 58 28 56 40 30 39 64 26 6 21 19 23 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 35. 38. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 19. 26. 33. 31. 33. 35. 39. 44. 43. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.0 60.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.84 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 16.8% 11.1% 7.8% 7.6% 10.7% 12.8% 25.9% Logistic: 7.2% 21.1% 14.1% 5.0% 3.1% 10.1% 15.0% 29.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 11.6% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 14.7% 27.4% Consensus: 4.7% 16.5% 9.5% 4.3% 3.6% 7.6% 14.2% 27.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 39 41 46 54 61 68 66 68 47 33 36 31 36 37 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 39 44 52 59 66 64 66 45 31 34 29 34 35 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 39 47 54 61 59 61 40 26 29 24 29 30 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 40 47 54 52 54 33 19 22 17 22 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT