* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 47 51 60 62 65 66 68 73 79 82 86 89 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 47 51 60 62 65 57 63 44 32 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 47 50 54 60 65 61 68 47 33 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 15 16 15 19 14 8 5 10 13 21 14 13 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 1 -1 -1 3 9 2 0 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 23 19 21 24 2 7 344 315 341 345 6 8 12 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.6 30.1 30.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 157 161 163 153 150 150 151 154 157 163 171 170 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 157 157 161 163 153 150 150 151 154 156 162 166 170 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 13 13 12 14 11 11 9 10 8 11 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 48 47 46 52 56 63 68 74 78 76 75 76 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 12 12 9 11 9 8 7 5 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 52 58 68 67 72 66 75 77 53 56 38 36 40 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 15 23 28 5 -16 4 32 55 40 70 30 35 53 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 3 5 5 9 3 0 4 -3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 537 393 292 290 311 328 208 346 348 173 -5 84 -165 -42 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.3 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.6 58.3 59.9 61.6 63.3 66.9 70.7 74.5 78.2 81.6 84.6 87.2 89.8 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 18 16 14 13 10 8 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 60 59 59 52 41 57 39 55 50 33 38 58 10 40 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 30. 35. 39. 41. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -7. -6. -10. -11. -15. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 12. 16. 25. 27. 30. 31. 33. 38. 44. 47. 51. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.0 56.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.85 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 17.4% 11.5% 8.2% 7.8% 11.0% 13.2% 25.6% Logistic: 7.4% 15.9% 11.6% 4.1% 1.7% 7.1% 7.5% 17.9% Bayesian: 1.3% 8.3% 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 4.9% 8.8% 53.0% Consensus: 5.1% 13.9% 10.0% 4.1% 3.2% 7.7% 9.8% 32.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 42 47 51 60 62 65 57 63 44 32 29 28 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 39 44 48 57 59 62 54 60 41 29 26 25 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 39 43 52 54 57 49 55 36 24 21 20 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 31 35 44 46 49 41 47 28 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT