* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 86 76 68 50 34 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 89 86 76 68 50 34 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 90 83 71 61 48 39 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 37 38 45 56 76 67 50 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 2 12 16 4 -8 -7 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 243 234 234 242 245 229 218 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 25.6 21.1 14.9 15.3 15.3 12.9 11.1 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 117 90 76 75 73 67 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 109 85 73 72 69 64 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -54.3 -52.1 -51.4 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -1.8 -0.5 1.1 2.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 39 44 48 52 47 51 43 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 28 26 28 26 22 22 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 43 87 97 117 140 167 178 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 92 124 105 100 97 67 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 10 32 10 78 82 63 -1 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 620 606 459 443 655 1076 1336 1478 1394 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.5 41.1 42.6 44.5 46.3 49.8 52.2 53.6 55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.3 56.3 52.4 48.4 44.4 38.3 35.0 33.3 31.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 34 34 34 30 21 12 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 30 CX,CY: 27/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -7. -10. -17. -27. -38. -50. -58. -63. -68. -72. -75. -77. -78. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -17. -30. -40. -43. -43. -43. -43. -47. -50. -55. -58. -62. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. 2. 0. -4. -6. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -14. -22. -40. -56. -65. -68. -76. -84. -93. -98.-102.-105.-108.-115. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 39.5 60.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 59.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 662.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/17/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 3( 23) 0( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 86 76 68 50 34 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 86 76 68 50 34 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 76 68 50 34 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 72 54 38 29 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 53 37 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 61 45 36 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 89 86 77 71 67 51 42 39 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17