* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 79 80 79 77 69 60 47 44 44 37 31 25 22 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 79 80 79 77 69 60 47 44 44 37 31 25 22 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 79 81 83 84 81 63 48 40 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 11 16 25 32 52 65 58 43 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -1 5 13 4 0 -7 2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 334 303 261 246 232 236 233 226 219 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.1 26.4 24.0 15.7 15.6 11.8 10.3 10.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 133 130 123 105 76 74 68 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 116 119 118 113 97 73 71 65 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -52.6 -53.4 -52.1 -51.3 -48.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.6 -1.8 -1.0 0.7 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 46 41 36 40 50 51 55 53 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 21 21 24 23 22 19 21 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -14 -8 0 -7 70 152 189 217 206 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 -2 15 54 60 117 94 104 77 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 10 8 16 2 14 39 64 47 33 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 456 584 635 650 625 608 466 865 1211 1404 1443 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 35.2 36.3 37.4 38.5 41.3 45.0 49.1 52.3 54.4 56.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.1 69.3 67.5 64.8 62.1 54.9 47.6 41.2 36.9 34.6 32.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 18 21 24 28 32 31 25 17 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 12 21 28 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -8. -15. -22. -29. -34. -38. -41. -44. -46. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -17. -24. -26. -26. -30. -33. -38. -41. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 0. -5. -2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. -6. -15. -28. -31. -31. -38. -44. -50. -53. -57. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 34.1 71.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 626.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 13.7% 10.0% 8.2% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 7.9% 5.1% 3.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.4% 7.2% 5.0% 3.8% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/16/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 7( 18) 6( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 79 80 79 77 69 60 47 44 44 37 31 25 22 18 DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 76 77 76 74 66 57 44 41 41 34 28 22 19 15 DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 71 69 61 52 39 36 36 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 64 62 54 45 32 29 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT