* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/14/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 62 63 66 68 69 67 64 51 45 40 35 32 31 29 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 62 63 66 68 69 67 64 51 45 40 35 32 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 59 62 64 64 66 66 59 51 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 17 20 17 10 19 34 44 53 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 0 1 2 6 4 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 9 6 357 355 343 337 259 240 253 245 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 27.9 27.3 26.2 24.3 15.3 18.6 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 151 137 131 121 106 75 81 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 130 129 119 117 111 97 72 76 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 -0.3 -1.3 -1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 10 10 7 5 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 52 57 54 46 46 52 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 18 18 17 19 19 20 23 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -30 -45 -60 -40 -36 5 20 79 111 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 33 19 -10 14 68 50 65 67 85 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 -5 6 5 -3 -1 51 110 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 675 606 546 522 505 670 613 623 455 843 1350 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.8 31.6 32.6 33.6 35.9 38.5 41.2 44.1 47.2 50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.2 72.1 72.0 71.4 70.8 67.8 62.4 55.6 48.6 41.6 34.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 11 14 21 27 29 29 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 30 36 34 17 18 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -5. -11. -19. -23. -27. -32. -35. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 13. 16. 18. 19. 17. 15. 1. -5. -10. -15. -18. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.9 72.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/14/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 382.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 15.2% 10.6% 8.4% 7.6% 11.0% 11.7% 7.9% Logistic: 3.8% 8.4% 5.7% 5.4% 1.7% 8.1% 3.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 8.0% 5.5% 4.6% 3.1% 6.4% 4.9% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/14/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/14/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 58 62 63 66 68 69 67 64 51 45 40 35 32 31 29 18HR AGO 50 49 53 57 58 61 63 64 62 59 46 40 35 30 27 26 24 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 51 54 56 57 55 52 39 33 28 23 20 19 17 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 44 46 47 45 42 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT