* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP122017 08/13/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 17 19 16 16 14 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 75 75 86 93 84 81 67 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.1 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.1 25.3 25.0 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 136 130 125 123 114 117 114 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 63 61 59 53 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 15 13 12 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 77 74 62 56 33 37 53 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 36 22 14 2 -14 -9 -11 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -5 -2 2 -2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 492 562 641 730 829 1017 1191 1404 1621 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.9 20.9 20.8 20.5 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.0 115.4 116.7 118.0 119.2 121.6 123.9 126.3 128.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 17. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -23. -24. -24. -23. -22. -19. -17. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.5 114.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122017 JOVA 08/13/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.62 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122017 JOVA 08/13/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##