* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP122017 08/12/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 15 17 18 13 16 14 15 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -1 3 0 -4 -1 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 77 75 69 77 80 65 67 61 61 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.4 26.7 26.2 25.7 24.8 25.2 25.0 25.4 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 139 132 126 121 111 116 113 117 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 66 64 62 60 55 50 48 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 15 16 16 13 13 11 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 73 79 74 68 59 42 56 50 62 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 28 21 15 20 2 2 -6 -12 -9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -4 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 381 465 537 606 694 891 1065 1246 1449 1667 1881 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.7 20.4 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.7 114.9 116.2 117.5 119.9 122.3 124.7 127.0 129.3 131.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 19. 18. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -3. -4. -7. -7. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -10. -13. -18. -19. -20. -20. -19. -18. -15. -13. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.3 112.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122017 JOVA 08/12/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.23 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 9.5% 7.8% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.2% 2.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122017 JOVA 08/12/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##