* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP122017 08/12/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 34 32 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 34 32 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 32 29 25 21 19 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 18 16 19 16 19 16 15 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 67 74 70 68 81 62 61 48 52 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.0 26.2 25.8 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 143 143 134 126 122 111 113 115 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 69 67 66 62 61 54 51 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 16 16 15 13 12 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 72 78 79 74 60 50 53 43 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 30 35 16 20 3 5 -6 -21 -15 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -2 -1 -1 -6 1 -6 0 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 343 378 447 539 595 748 947 1093 1271 1482 1705 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.9 21.0 21.0 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.8 112.0 113.2 114.4 115.6 118.0 120.4 122.7 125.1 127.6 130.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 7 6 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -21. -21. -21. -19. -18. -15. -13. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.9 110.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122017 JOVA 08/12/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.13 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 8.9% 8.2% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.1% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122017 JOVA 08/12/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##