* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/08/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 56 59 65 63 59 52 54 55 58 61 66 67 69 71 V (KT) LAND 50 40 35 39 43 48 47 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 40 34 38 41 46 47 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 10 6 8 10 17 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 3 -2 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 323 353 4 13 8 4 42 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 31.0 30.1 29.9 30.2 29.8 29.0 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 172 168 172 167 152 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 166 164 172 163 158 164 158 144 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 12 11 9 9 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 67 67 70 72 77 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 17 18 19 21 15 9 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 17 13 12 25 45 52 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 11 31 43 47 60 55 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 0 -2 -4 -10 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -42 -153 -48 69 178 210 7 -245 -190 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.3 20.0 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.9 89.0 90.1 91.2 92.3 94.3 96.7 99.3 101.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 6 31 41 30 45 32 4 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. -5. -13. -23. -25. -26. -27. -27. -27. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 13. 9. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 16. 17. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.1 87.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.81 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.77 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 30.6% 16.1% 10.0% 9.8% 22.7% 22.8% 21.7% Logistic: 3.9% 34.0% 21.9% 18.0% 12.2% 28.3% 24.0% 33.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 4.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 0.8% 36.0% Consensus: 3.8% 23.1% 12.9% 9.3% 7.3% 17.4% 15.9% 30.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 40 35 39 43 48 47 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 44 48 52 57 56 41 37 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 54 59 58 43 39 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 49 48 33 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT