* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072017 08/07/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 48 55 63 74 77 68 60 63 66 69 71 74 75 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 48 35 39 49 53 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 46 34 36 44 49 48 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 14 16 7 4 7 4 14 19 17 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -1 -1 -2 0 -3 -3 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 257 272 284 210 314 73 357 336 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.8 30.3 30.0 30.0 30.1 29.8 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 159 166 172 169 169 171 166 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 154 155 154 160 168 159 157 159 153 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.0 -52.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 11 12 10 12 8 10 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 68 66 67 67 70 70 73 77 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 19 19 10 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 41 24 31 35 25 26 32 42 48 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 49 55 65 79 36 36 35 50 33 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -7 -3 -2 -1 -6 0 -11 -9 -15 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 132 109 156 178 51 -146 73 239 214 39 -132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.5 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.2 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.8 84.9 86.0 87.1 89.2 91.2 93.0 94.9 96.9 98.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 45 62 65 86 5 39 35 53 35 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 23. 26. 30. 35. 39. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. -4. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 28. 39. 42. 33. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 39. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.1 82.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 SEVEN 08/07/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.82 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 20.9% 12.2% 8.7% 8.3% 12.9% 22.0% 41.2% Logistic: 3.4% 23.7% 10.2% 6.6% 3.3% 21.7% 51.8% 65.3% Bayesian: 2.7% 7.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 3.7% 15.2% 49.1% Consensus: 3.9% 17.3% 7.9% 5.2% 3.9% 12.8% 29.6% 51.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 SEVEN 08/07/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 SEVEN 08/07/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 44 48 35 39 49 53 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 44 31 35 45 49 39 28 24 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 25 29 39 43 33 22 18 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT