* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112017 08/04/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 29 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 29 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 30 27 24 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 23 26 28 28 30 26 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -3 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 70 81 89 96 110 128 129 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 149 147 143 140 137 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 63 59 54 48 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -18 -11 -17 -14 0 -1 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 16 4 -7 -7 -6 0 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 0 1 2 0 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 525 527 495 487 492 516 539 532 529 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.4 20.0 20.4 20.6 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.7 111.6 112.2 112.9 113.9 114.5 114.8 115.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 11 9 7 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -16. -22. -26. -27. -28. -28. -30. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -16. -19. -20. -20. -17. -14. -10. -10. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.7 109.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112017 ELEVEN 08/04/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112017 ELEVEN 08/04/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##