* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL062017 08/01/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 27 34 40 42 41 39 36 37 37 36 35 36 38 V (KT) LAND 25 27 27 29 30 37 43 44 44 42 38 39 40 39 38 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 14 10 11 11 14 20 26 31 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -2 -2 -3 -7 -1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 305 297 270 257 222 242 242 268 280 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 29.5 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.5 27.2 27.5 27.4 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 161 153 151 148 143 132 128 132 131 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 144 135 133 130 125 114 110 113 112 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.3 -55.0 -55.1 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 46 45 44 47 49 53 50 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -3 2 -4 -24 -45 -49 -35 -14 6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 17 22 16 17 28 15 7 0 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 -1 0 5 2 0 -7 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 129 257 380 370 373 512 704 744 771 818 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.7 29.4 30.3 31.1 32.7 34.2 35.7 36.9 37.9 38.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.5 79.3 78.2 77.0 75.9 73.3 70.4 67.3 63.9 60.1 56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 38 55 49 33 20 9 9 17 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. 31. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 0. -5. -12. -15. -18. -23. -26. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 2. 9. 15. 17. 16. 14. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.9 80.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062017 EMILY 08/01/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.22 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 12.2% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.0% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.1% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062017 EMILY 08/01/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062017 EMILY 08/01/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 27 29 30 37 43 44 44 42 38 39 40 39 38 38 41 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 27 34 40 41 41 39 35 36 37 36 35 35 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 31 37 38 38 36 32 33 34 33 32 32 35 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 23 29 30 30 28 24 25 26 25 24 24 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT