* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL062017 08/01/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 23 25 32 38 43 41 40 36 38 39 38 36 36 39 V (KT) LAND 25 28 28 28 30 37 43 48 47 46 42 44 44 43 42 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 25 24 24 24 25 26 27 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 12 11 12 18 21 25 32 36 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 -4 -2 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 302 300 276 270 257 232 249 261 280 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.0 28.1 30.1 29.9 29.8 28.9 28.2 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 138 172 168 166 151 141 132 131 131 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 166 122 152 148 146 131 122 113 113 112 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 -54.6 -55.0 -54.6 -55.1 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 7 8 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 43 43 43 43 46 47 53 54 52 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 5 4 5 -7 -33 -57 -51 -55 -24 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 -3 4 21 22 30 26 21 9 0 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 4 -5 8 -2 1 -3 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -93 4 114 226 345 355 376 517 721 762 753 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.0 28.6 29.3 30.0 31.6 33.0 34.3 35.6 36.8 38.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.5 80.5 79.5 78.5 77.5 75.4 73.0 70.3 67.1 63.6 60.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 17 67 65 64 32 19 9 11 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 32. 34. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. -1. -6. -13. -16. -19. -24. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -0. 7. 13. 18. 16. 15. 11. 13. 14. 13. 11. 11. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.4 81.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062017 EMILY 08/01/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.83 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 80.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 11.8% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 6.8% 7.9% 2.4% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 6.2% 5.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062017 EMILY 08/01/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062017 EMILY 08/01/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 28 28 30 37 43 48 47 46 42 44 44 43 42 42 44 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 26 33 39 44 43 42 38 40 40 39 38 38 40 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 30 36 41 40 39 35 37 37 36 35 35 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 30 35 34 33 29 31 31 30 29 29 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT