* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL062017 07/31/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 47 49 52 53 53 53 52 53 54 55 56 58 58 V (KT) LAND 40 42 34 35 37 38 41 42 42 42 42 42 43 44 45 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 35 32 36 37 38 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 13 16 23 16 16 23 28 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -1 -5 -4 -2 -1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 344 316 281 296 302 268 262 257 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 31.2 30.2 27.9 29.9 29.5 29.0 27.9 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 135 168 161 153 136 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 170 152 118 148 141 132 116 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.9 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -54.4 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 7 8 7 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 46 46 43 43 45 46 47 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 3 10 -1 -13 -10 -32 -45 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 20 11 -19 -4 25 42 19 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 2 3 6 9 -5 5 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 58 -7 -79 2 101 326 309 329 435 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.4 28.9 30.5 32.1 33.5 35.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.3 82.5 81.6 80.6 79.7 77.6 75.5 73.2 71.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 65 73 12 18 56 59 34 16 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.5 83.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062017 EMILY 07/31/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.72 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.22 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 15.6% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 10.8% 15.4% 5.8% 0.5% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 8.8% 8.7% 2.0% 0.2% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062017 EMILY 07/31/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062017 EMILY 07/31/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 34 35 37 38 41 42 42 42 42 42 43 44 45 48 48 18HR AGO 40 39 31 32 34 35 38 39 39 39 39 39 40 41 42 45 45 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 39 40 43 44 44 44 44 44 45 46 47 50 50 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 33 36 37 37 37 37 37 38 39 40 43 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT