* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/31/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 47 43 37 31 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 47 43 37 31 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 51 47 43 36 30 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 9 9 6 8 8 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 0 -4 -3 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 5 355 11 8 309 291 258 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.3 24.1 23.8 23.4 22.2 21.5 21.5 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 107 105 101 97 84 76 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 56 52 49 43 38 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 10 9 9 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 15 -3 -14 -22 -32 -16 -10 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 6 -8 2 18 6 12 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -3 -6 -3 0 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1465 1434 1414 1407 1411 1357 1333 1351 1383 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.3 21.4 22.5 23.6 25.5 26.8 27.7 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.9 126.5 127.1 127.7 128.3 129.7 130.9 132.0 133.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 10 8 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -22. -26. -30. -33. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -8. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -24. -29. -34. -37. -41. -44. -48. -54. -58. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.2 125.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##