* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/30/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 49 47 40 35 30 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 49 47 40 35 30 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 47 44 39 33 27 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 12 5 10 8 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 47 36 29 19 2 304 259 240 232 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.6 25.7 24.6 24.1 23.6 22.3 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 121 110 105 99 85 77 76 75 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 62 62 59 55 50 47 41 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 13 13 11 11 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 55 35 21 7 -27 -11 -9 -4 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 12 10 8 3 -7 6 -5 -3 6 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -2 -2 -3 -8 0 5 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1572 1527 1474 1437 1411 1410 1385 1378 1388 1419 1393 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.7 18.7 19.8 20.9 23.2 25.1 26.5 27.5 28.0 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.1 125.5 126.1 126.7 128.1 129.6 131.2 132.3 133.1 133.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 13 12 11 9 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -21. -25. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -9. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -10. -15. -20. -23. -29. -33. -36. -38. -43. -47. -50. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.7 124.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/30/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 7.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/30/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##