* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/28/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 56 57 54 52 45 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 39 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 55 56 57 54 52 45 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 52 52 50 47 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 18 15 16 11 10 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -1 2 3 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 46 56 54 52 48 70 73 81 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.7 25.9 24.3 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 131 132 132 130 123 107 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 63 64 65 64 59 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 19 19 19 16 17 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 79 88 94 73 70 67 41 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 25 40 44 43 20 -5 14 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1756 1752 1748 1730 1711 1619 1490 1399 1336 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.3 16.5 18.5 20.7 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.3 125.3 125.3 125.3 125.2 125.1 125.5 126.4 127.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 1 2 4 8 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 7 6 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 4. 2. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.8 125.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/28/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.25 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 19.9% 15.3% 11.0% 7.5% 9.3% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.3% 5.3% 3.7% 2.6% 3.2% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/28/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##