* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/28/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 49 47 45 40 35 27 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 49 47 45 40 35 27 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 47 45 41 36 31 27 25 23 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 8 10 5 6 8 7 5 11 12 22 21 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -5 0 -4 2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 4 349 335 351 338 307 256 273 160 205 185 195 203 208 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.4 24.6 23.9 24.0 23.3 23.0 22.6 22.6 22.6 20.2 21.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 124 122 117 109 102 102 95 91 87 87 90 65 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 66 66 63 58 53 46 39 32 27 22 24 23 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 20 22 21 21 19 17 13 12 10 9 7 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 42 62 67 64 65 49 68 71 93 88 73 41 3 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 34 31 23 21 19 -1 14 -9 -9 -10 8 2 14 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -5 -9 -9 -1 -5 -1 -6 -3 -3 -2 -4 2 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 887 910 942 991 1028 1115 1265 1426 1578 1656 1705 1743 1785 1215 1350 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.5 22.0 22.3 22.8 23.3 23.9 24.6 25.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.9 119.7 120.6 121.5 123.6 125.8 127.8 129.7 131.4 132.9 134.2 135.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 16 17 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -25. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. -0. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. -0. -0. -3. -6. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -16. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -15. -20. -28. -32. -38. -43. -50. -56. -65. -67. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.9 118.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/28/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/28/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##