* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/28/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 65 65 65 63 59 51 47 39 33 27 24 19 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 64 65 65 65 63 59 51 47 39 33 27 24 19 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 64 63 62 60 55 51 46 41 37 33 29 27 24 22 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 8 5 12 8 5 5 2 3 3 3 9 15 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -1 -1 -4 -3 0 -1 -5 -2 -5 -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 4 21 24 1 312 347 10 312 302 297 106 253 226 252 232 238 235 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.1 24.4 24.2 23.6 22.9 22.8 23.0 22.2 23.1 23.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 129 126 124 120 115 107 105 98 90 89 91 83 92 91 90 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 70 68 66 63 56 53 48 45 39 36 34 30 29 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 25 25 25 24 20 20 17 16 13 12 10 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 39 44 43 56 69 75 87 71 76 65 75 57 49 5 28 -10 -19 200 MB DIV 44 27 38 40 37 9 20 5 -4 -16 -4 -1 6 0 3 -4 -8 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -5 -4 -8 -4 0 -6 -3 0 -1 0 1 3 3 2 LAND (KM) 884 900 924 960 1004 1117 1229 1386 1534 1685 1748 1800 1871 1703 1840 1798 1849 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.2 19.5 20.2 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.7 118.5 119.4 120.2 122.2 124.4 126.7 128.7 130.6 132.3 133.8 135.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -25. -29. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. -2. -2. -6. -8. -11. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -0. 0. -2. -6. -14. -18. -26. -32. -38. -41. -46. -50. -55. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.1 116.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/28/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 7.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/28/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##