* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/27/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 65 67 67 66 61 55 50 42 38 33 28 22 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 65 67 67 66 61 55 50 42 38 33 28 22 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 62 61 61 60 57 54 51 47 43 40 38 36 33 29 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 8 7 7 8 7 4 5 3 2 3 4 11 11 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -5 -4 -2 -3 -4 -5 -7 -5 -1 -4 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 356 351 16 7 330 330 355 286 303 210 186 202 212 206 225 226 248 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.8 24.5 24.5 24.3 23.5 23.4 23.5 21.9 22.8 23.3 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 131 128 125 123 122 108 108 105 97 95 97 80 89 93 92 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 70 68 65 61 57 51 47 44 41 38 38 34 32 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 23 26 25 25 23 22 20 17 16 14 13 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 28 38 51 37 57 80 100 95 96 99 87 85 66 12 34 3 -8 200 MB DIV 40 33 32 44 55 16 39 10 3 -6 6 -11 4 -5 8 -6 2 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -5 -5 -6 -8 -3 -5 -4 -1 -1 0 2 2 3 4 LAND (KM) 875 902 923 953 991 1106 1214 1352 1517 1682 1809 1877 1957 1629 1846 1836 1808 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.2 118.0 118.9 119.7 121.6 123.8 126.0 128.2 130.2 132.0 133.6 135.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 10 9 8 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -22. -26. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 2. 2. 1. -4. -10. -15. -23. -27. -32. -37. -43. -49. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.7 116.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##