* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/27/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 65 65 63 63 63 60 55 53 46 41 37 34 29 23 17 V (KT) LAND 70 66 65 65 63 63 63 60 55 53 46 41 37 34 29 23 17 V (KT) LGEM 70 66 63 62 61 57 54 49 45 42 39 36 35 33 31 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 13 12 8 10 9 6 4 2 2 1 2 6 15 22 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -3 -3 -1 -3 -2 -3 -4 -6 -3 -3 -5 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 349 1 352 7 4 323 343 358 312 317 330 113 283 234 266 259 262 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.1 24.5 24.6 23.9 23.6 23.6 22.5 23.3 23.3 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 134 131 128 124 123 114 108 109 100 97 98 88 95 94 98 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 71 71 70 65 62 56 50 46 42 38 38 33 32 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 25 27 24 26 27 25 23 23 20 18 16 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 23 35 44 51 43 72 80 105 95 110 95 91 80 68 72 53 40 200 MB DIV 25 44 39 33 49 44 18 18 2 5 3 -5 -12 3 -1 -8 -7 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -5 -6 -5 -3 -4 -3 -3 -5 -2 0 -1 1 1 4 5 LAND (KM) 845 890 922 944 976 1061 1174 1283 1439 1616 1765 1851 1910 1758 1726 1776 1658 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.5 117.4 118.2 119.1 120.8 122.8 124.9 127.1 129.3 131.1 132.4 133.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 6 9 11 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -15. -18. -21. -25. -29. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 1. 2. 4. 2. -0. -0. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -10. -15. -17. -24. -29. -33. -36. -41. -47. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.4 115.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.30 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 14.2% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.9% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##