* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/27/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 71 71 70 70 69 67 64 58 52 47 43 38 34 28 23 V (KT) LAND 75 72 71 71 70 70 69 67 64 58 52 47 43 38 34 28 23 V (KT) LGEM 75 71 68 66 64 60 57 54 50 47 44 41 38 35 33 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 15 14 13 11 9 10 4 5 5 4 5 8 6 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -5 -2 -5 -4 -4 -3 -7 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 344 333 352 349 9 327 325 316 278 180 116 9 290 286 258 261 246 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.2 26.0 25.8 24.6 24.3 23.9 23.2 22.8 22.9 23.8 23.0 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 134 132 125 123 121 109 105 101 93 90 93 100 91 96 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 73 71 71 70 66 61 56 51 47 43 39 32 30 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 25 25 24 26 26 26 24 23 22 20 19 17 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 18 23 40 44 52 54 69 84 79 70 76 76 63 61 82 50 42 200 MB DIV 22 44 52 37 31 48 19 41 9 -7 -3 -6 -4 6 -20 1 -15 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 801 838 883 913 939 999 1103 1184 1287 1411 1537 1655 1709 1841 1742 1755 1604 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.6 116.4 117.2 118.1 119.7 121.5 123.4 125.3 127.2 128.9 130.5 132.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 11 15 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -26. -30. -33. -37. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -11. -17. -23. -28. -32. -37. -41. -47. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.2 114.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.28 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.37 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 15.5% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.5% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##