* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/27/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 81 79 78 74 71 67 67 60 57 47 41 35 31 26 20 V (KT) LAND 85 82 81 79 78 74 71 67 67 60 57 47 41 35 31 26 20 V (KT) LGEM 85 83 80 78 75 69 64 58 54 49 44 39 35 31 28 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 17 18 14 9 8 10 9 9 1 5 8 3 3 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -3 0 -1 -2 -5 -3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 340 347 343 358 352 24 345 329 322 297 229 102 49 305 249 245 227 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.4 24.4 24.0 23.1 22.9 22.2 22.9 23.1 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 137 136 135 128 125 123 117 106 102 93 90 84 92 91 94 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -52.0 -51.1 -51.4 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -52.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 71 72 73 73 73 73 72 66 65 58 51 44 40 37 32 27 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 25 25 26 25 26 24 26 23 24 20 18 16 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR -3 18 30 49 57 60 83 76 90 74 89 91 91 62 78 67 53 200 MB DIV 31 12 56 53 53 48 37 21 26 13 2 -27 -19 -9 -7 2 -4 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -7 -6 -6 -4 -5 -6 -5 -3 0 0 0 1 0 4 3 LAND (KM) 771 802 845 890 925 977 1058 1147 1213 1301 1415 1564 1645 1599 1880 1906 1776 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.5 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.7 115.6 116.5 117.3 118.9 120.6 122.4 124.1 125.7 127.5 129.5 131.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 10 8 10 11 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 4 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -9. -13. -18. -23. -27. -31. -35. -39. -43. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 1. 3. -1. 0. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -7. -11. -14. -18. -18. -25. -28. -38. -44. -50. -54. -59. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.9 113.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.22 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.22 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 -2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 13.8% 10.8% 7.6% 5.6% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.1% 3.7% 2.6% 1.9% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/27/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##