* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/26/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 38 33 32 32 37 43 46 48 53 51 47 42 38 35 35 37 V (KT) LAND 45 38 33 32 32 37 43 46 48 53 51 47 42 38 35 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 45 37 33 30 29 29 31 33 36 38 38 36 33 30 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 10 13 16 19 21 17 17 17 11 13 13 12 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -3 -4 -5 -4 0 1 0 3 6 0 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 142 140 120 90 70 64 59 63 60 75 54 43 10 182 190 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.5 25.3 24.5 22.5 23.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 139 140 139 138 139 136 132 128 115 111 91 97 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 58 59 59 61 61 67 65 68 65 58 55 34 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 18 18 19 20 19 19 22 20 19 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 57 77 107 95 106 113 114 98 84 69 30 -6 106 99 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 18 28 23 20 38 29 17 14 26 29 5 -34 -29 -28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 4 1 -3 4 -2 -5 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1507 1564 1622 1676 1730 1800 1801 1762 1696 1613 1523 1443 1377 1679 1939 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.3 14.6 15.4 16.6 18.0 19.5 20.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.1 123.6 124.1 124.6 125.3 125.4 125.2 125.1 125.1 125.4 125.9 126.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 2 1 3 5 7 8 7 19 23 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 9 10 12 13 16 15 13 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 9. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -13. -13. -8. -2. 1. 3. 8. 6. 2. -3. -7. -10. -10. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.2 122.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##