* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/26/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 29 31 34 38 35 23 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -6 -5 -1 -1 1 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 285 282 281 287 287 285 231 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.4 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 112 113 116 115 117 122 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 36 34 32 28 28 32 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 7 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 1 9 21 18 26 28 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 6 19 -8 5 -2 -27 -12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 1 2 0 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1513 1426 1339 1255 1172 998 852 718 601 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.2 17.8 17.3 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.5 141.3 142.1 142.9 143.7 145.4 146.9 148.4 149.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 20. 19. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -4. -9. -14. -20. -23. -25. -25. -25. -26. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -22. -28. -32. -35. -37. -39. -40. -41. -43. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.0 140.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/26/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/26/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##