* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/26/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 19 24 27 38 32 18 4 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 -3 -6 -4 -5 0 9 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 285 285 282 283 290 294 292 183 187 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.3 25.6 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 120 117 115 114 115 118 119 123 127 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 39 37 34 31 30 33 31 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 8 0 -2 5 12 17 20 22 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -16 -18 3 5 5 -3 -34 -36 -12 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 -2 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1767 1685 1604 1521 1438 1271 1119 963 825 711 600 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.1 17.9 17.5 17.1 16.6 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.3 139.0 139.7 140.5 141.2 142.8 144.3 145.9 147.4 148.8 150.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 18. 17. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -10. -15. -21. -26. -27. -26. -27. -28. -28. -28. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.8 138.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/26/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/26/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##