* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/25/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 72 70 67 65 64 65 67 67 64 57 51 45 45 46 47 V (KT) LAND 75 74 72 70 67 65 64 65 67 67 64 57 51 45 45 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 75 76 74 71 68 63 62 63 67 67 62 54 45 38 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 17 13 10 9 14 14 15 15 16 14 4 13 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 3 5 0 -4 -5 -3 1 0 3 1 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 187 161 163 157 143 90 61 68 83 98 71 85 223 100 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.3 24.7 23.0 24.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 137 136 134 133 133 131 130 127 110 90 103 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 58 59 61 63 65 67 72 71 71 66 59 51 56 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 19 18 19 19 20 21 22 22 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -7 8 23 47 86 109 118 110 114 129 128 105 88 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 2 1 -7 5 19 33 72 98 58 46 20 -7 -4 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 2 1 0 0 3 8 13 8 2 -3 4 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1278 1332 1386 1441 1497 1580 1602 1578 1483 1331 1256 1222 1224 1349 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.5 15.3 15.1 14.8 14.4 14.4 14.7 15.7 17.4 19.2 20.9 22.7 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.4 120.9 121.4 121.9 122.6 122.9 122.9 122.7 122.4 123.0 124.4 125.8 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 3 1 3 7 9 10 11 4 8 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. -23. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. -11. -18. -24. -30. -30. -29. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.7 119.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/25/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.29 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.16 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 463.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.39 -2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 15.0% 14.0% 10.9% 7.5% 8.9% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 5.7% 4.9% 3.8% 2.5% 3.2% 3.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/25/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##