* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/25/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 92 92 93 93 92 92 91 87 84 75 67 59 52 46 39 V (KT) LAND 90 91 92 92 93 93 92 92 91 87 84 75 67 59 52 46 39 V (KT) LGEM 90 91 91 91 90 89 86 82 77 73 67 60 55 49 43 37 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 15 16 14 16 17 13 7 9 7 3 5 6 4 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 4 360 358 1 359 347 338 340 321 332 327 74 66 158 9 158 340 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.2 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.4 25.8 25.0 25.0 23.6 23.1 22.7 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 156 151 147 139 135 131 130 127 121 112 112 99 93 87 86 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 68 71 74 75 76 75 74 71 65 60 55 48 45 36 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 21 22 25 28 30 31 30 32 28 26 23 20 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -18 -10 8 18 28 58 77 100 130 165 177 161 125 133 112 98 200 MB DIV -3 21 28 26 78 34 59 64 57 46 32 17 -3 -17 -22 -19 2 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -7 -7 -7 -10 -14 -9 -4 -15 -6 -4 -4 0 -1 2 1 LAND (KM) 564 623 694 758 765 825 930 1010 1117 1258 1359 1469 1605 1509 1766 1605 1646 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.4 110.5 111.6 112.7 114.8 116.9 118.9 120.9 122.9 124.8 126.5 128.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 11 9 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 22 19 13 10 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -11. -16. -20. -23. -26. -29. -32. -36. -40. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 15. 17. 12. 7. 4. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -15. -23. -31. -38. -44. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.4 108.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 18.3% 13.8% 10.2% 7.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 8.6% 2.5% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 10.0% 5.5% 3.9% 2.9% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##