* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/25/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 29 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 29 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 30 28 26 23 21 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 18 23 32 35 20 5 9 12 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -7 -5 -2 8 3 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 278 273 285 294 293 303 316 338 134 141 147 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.3 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 122 119 116 115 120 121 122 125 129 133 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 41 39 35 32 30 30 30 31 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 8 7 6 7 6 4 3 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 4 6 1 -2 14 17 25 21 29 19 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 8 -8 -16 4 -10 -3 -30 -46 -33 -21 -35 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 -2 0 -2 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1864 1784 1705 1625 1545 1395 1252 1118 986 864 759 666 605 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.5 17.1 16.8 16.4 15.9 15.4 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.6 138.3 138.9 139.6 140.3 141.7 143.1 144.5 145.9 147.3 148.7 150.2 151.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -8. -11. -16. -23. -27. -27. -28. -27. -25. -25. -24. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.9 137.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##