* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/25/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 69 67 65 62 61 64 66 66 65 62 58 54 54 55 57 V (KT) LAND 70 71 69 67 65 62 61 64 66 66 65 62 58 54 54 55 57 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 71 69 66 60 57 58 62 63 61 57 51 44 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 16 15 11 6 8 12 17 15 15 18 11 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 4 1 2 -2 -3 -4 0 4 4 0 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 186 178 163 167 158 141 80 70 84 61 96 73 26 133 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.3 24.9 23.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 138 138 136 134 133 133 130 130 127 113 105 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -51.1 -52.1 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 60 62 64 67 71 74 73 71 68 69 54 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 16 17 18 18 17 19 19 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -16 -3 13 28 116 106 122 117 110 107 110 73 104 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -3 2 -4 -7 24 22 58 66 82 44 32 6 -25 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 4 4 2 1 0 1 6 9 12 -1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1244 1284 1324 1370 1417 1513 1572 1609 1577 1482 1371 1254 1114 1460 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.1 14.7 14.5 14.4 14.8 15.8 17.3 19.3 21.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.1 119.6 120.1 120.6 121.1 122.0 122.6 123.0 123.0 122.8 122.8 123.1 123.3 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 4 7 9 10 13 22 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 11 10 10 8 8 9 6 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -6. -4. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -16. -15. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.6 119.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/25/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.16 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 429.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 -2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 15.4% 14.4% 11.4% 7.8% 9.0% 8.7% 7.5% Logistic: 2.1% 4.1% 1.7% 1.3% 0.4% 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 6.8% 5.4% 4.2% 2.7% 3.6% 3.3% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/25/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##