* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/25/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 95 96 96 93 91 88 89 84 84 78 71 64 57 53 47 V (KT) LAND 90 94 95 96 96 93 91 88 89 84 84 78 71 64 57 53 47 V (KT) LGEM 90 93 96 97 96 92 86 82 77 71 67 63 58 52 45 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 12 15 15 15 13 10 8 7 3 10 11 7 5 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -4 1 1 0 -2 -6 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 325 350 358 360 358 346 341 324 275 262 9 79 57 29 315 264 242 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.6 28.0 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.5 26.2 25.6 24.9 25.2 23.7 23.3 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 157 151 145 135 131 127 128 125 118 112 115 100 95 94 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.5 -50.7 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 5 4 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 71 75 74 76 75 74 70 63 60 54 51 47 42 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 23 24 26 27 28 29 31 30 32 31 29 26 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -16 -13 -6 5 24 38 54 67 104 122 152 141 133 119 118 110 200 MB DIV 11 1 35 27 17 63 37 52 77 54 32 12 -5 -34 -8 0 -2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -7 -6 -7 -13 -8 -3 -4 -4 0 0 0 -4 0 -6 LAND (KM) 522 559 615 691 752 776 859 937 1029 1155 1273 1381 1503 1673 1789 1851 1927 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.6 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.4 109.4 110.5 111.6 113.8 115.9 117.8 119.7 121.6 123.5 125.2 127.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 10 11 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 21 19 13 8 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. -30. -33. -37. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 12. 11. 13. 11. 7. 4. -0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 1. -2. -1. -6. -6. -12. -19. -26. -33. -37. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.2 107.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.39 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 19.9% 15.6% 12.2% 8.8% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.7% 11.7% 4.2% 2.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.0% 27.4% 3.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 19.7% 7.6% 5.4% 3.9% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##