* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 103 107 111 113 107 103 100 95 86 79 72 66 60 56 50 V (KT) LAND 90 97 103 107 111 113 107 103 100 95 86 79 72 66 60 56 50 V (KT) LGEM 90 97 101 105 107 108 101 95 88 79 73 67 61 55 50 47 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 8 13 14 15 13 9 11 9 5 9 7 5 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 -2 1 -4 -4 1 -2 -4 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 14 329 344 355 351 344 347 339 312 264 250 174 122 58 15 298 237 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 28.5 28.0 27.2 26.7 26.3 26.5 26.0 25.6 24.4 24.8 23.5 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 159 159 149 144 136 130 126 128 123 120 108 111 97 93 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 72 73 74 73 77 76 78 74 74 73 68 66 56 52 48 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 21 24 28 27 30 32 33 32 31 29 27 24 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -21 -14 -11 -10 4 16 32 41 64 97 113 126 118 120 107 109 200 MB DIV 66 18 12 39 31 58 49 54 66 49 40 30 32 -18 -18 -6 -23 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -1 -6 -4 -10 -10 -8 -2 -8 -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 466 495 524 576 640 712 749 828 906 991 1085 1186 1267 1488 1707 1778 1839 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.2 107.2 108.1 109.1 110.1 112.1 114.0 115.8 117.6 119.4 121.0 122.6 124.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 12 14 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 27 28 22 20 12 8 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. -27. -30. -34. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 8. 14. 19. 20. 18. 16. 12. 9. 5. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 17. 21. 23. 17. 13. 10. 5. -4. -11. -18. -24. -30. -34. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.1 106.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.34 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.1% 26.8% 20.1% 15.7% 11.3% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 41.4% 43.8% 23.0% 17.2% 10.1% 6.0% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 18.0% 60.1% 27.6% 17.5% 10.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 27.9% 43.6% 23.6% 16.8% 10.5% 10.5% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##