* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/25/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 90 95 98 100 101 100 96 90 92 83 76 68 62 57 52 V (KT) LAND 80 85 90 95 98 100 101 100 96 90 92 83 76 68 62 57 52 V (KT) LGEM 80 85 90 93 96 98 97 94 87 80 74 67 59 53 47 42 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 7 5 9 12 12 14 17 10 8 2 4 7 1 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 1 2 2 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 1 -2 3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 11 1 333 339 346 360 356 350 334 288 295 275 181 166 126 231 233 SST (C) 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.5 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.6 24.1 24.0 23.3 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 161 161 158 154 152 146 139 132 129 128 125 119 105 102 94 87 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -51.0 -51.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.4 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 74 74 77 78 78 78 77 74 70 65 58 44 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 24 24 25 28 31 32 32 37 33 32 28 26 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -18 -21 -14 -8 -2 30 38 49 63 105 124 152 131 144 120 112 200 MB DIV 90 63 34 45 73 67 67 48 70 60 75 39 43 12 -4 -14 -9 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 3 -1 -7 -3 -9 -7 0 -4 -3 -3 0 4 0 4 LAND (KM) 442 459 482 511 560 706 712 773 867 933 1023 1133 1217 1287 1554 1504 1564 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.1 106.9 107.9 108.9 111.0 112.9 114.8 116.6 118.4 120.1 121.7 123.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 14 9 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 23 27 28 20 16 9 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 7. 12. 15. 15. 21. 16. 13. 8. 5. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 18. 20. 21. 20. 16. 10. 12. 3. -4. -12. -18. -23. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.8 105.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.5% 31.3% 21.8% 16.9% 12.2% 15.1% 11.9% 8.4% Logistic: 21.9% 37.6% 21.4% 14.2% 6.2% 6.9% 2.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 8.3% 52.3% 37.5% 22.8% 5.1% 14.6% 0.9% 0.0% Consensus: 18.3% 40.4% 26.9% 17.9% 7.8% 12.2% 4.9% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##