* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/25/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 41 39 37 33 29 24 23 23 24 25 26 27 26 25 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 41 39 37 33 29 24 23 23 24 25 26 27 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 38 35 32 28 24 22 21 21 21 21 20 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 6 10 14 21 19 28 21 3 14 20 13 13 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 -1 -3 -1 -1 -5 -4 5 2 -1 6 4 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 151 155 187 248 277 301 302 300 313 30 123 147 149 159 189 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.4 25.8 25.9 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 128 128 130 127 120 121 130 132 132 132 133 136 137 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 48 45 45 41 38 33 29 27 25 25 27 29 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -11 -13 -12 -7 -9 2 12 19 28 29 32 24 29 10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 0 3 9 14 -14 -1 -18 -34 -42 -38 -24 -7 -31 -33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2213 2130 2047 1962 1878 1725 1562 1409 1267 1133 1028 933 861 673 745 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.8 17.1 17.0 16.6 16.1 15.6 15.1 14.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.6 135.3 136.0 136.7 137.4 138.7 140.2 141.7 143.2 144.7 146.0 147.3 148.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 9 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 2 3 4 2 0 0 3 4 5 5 4 5 8 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -17. -17. -16. -15. -14. -13. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.6 134.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 20.6% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 8.3% 5.8% 1.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 9.6% 7.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##