* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/24/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 35 31 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 36 35 31 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 34 32 29 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 7 11 15 25 30 35 32 17 7 15 16 14 14 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -1 -5 0 -4 -4 -7 -9 -1 8 0 1 2 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 308 279 244 197 189 262 281 300 302 297 297 223 189 180 162 177 N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.1 25.9 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 130 129 127 128 130 123 121 129 129 130 131 133 134 138 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 50 49 44 42 39 37 29 26 24 25 25 31 32 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 10 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -4 -4 -1 1 -3 7 -3 16 11 24 19 27 24 24 15 N/A 200 MB DIV 6 23 12 2 10 19 -17 6 -7 -16 -52 -48 -46 -12 -16 -24 N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -1 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 2291 2352 2313 2218 2122 1949 1787 1635 1466 1302 1158 1034 913 888 779 716 N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.8 16.4 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.5 16.1 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.7 132.7 133.6 134.5 135.3 136.8 138.2 139.6 141.2 142.8 144.3 145.7 147.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 9 11 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 2 1 3 4 0 0 3 2 3 4 5 4 7 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -6. -11. -13. -11. -11. -10. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -14. -20. -26. -32. -36. -36. -34. -34. -31. -30. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.3 131.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/24/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 5.3% 2.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 8.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/24/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##