* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/23/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 64 73 85 97 101 105 99 98 91 88 80 76 70 63 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 64 73 85 97 101 105 99 98 91 88 80 76 70 63 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 56 61 67 81 94 104 104 98 90 83 76 68 61 52 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 5 4 6 6 9 11 14 11 13 14 8 6 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 1 -3 -3 -3 0 -4 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 122 125 130 126 91 75 50 44 28 8 10 343 314 287 298 228 261 SST (C) 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.7 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.7 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.1 24.8 24.5 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 155 152 149 151 155 151 151 146 141 134 130 126 126 110 106 99 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 74 77 77 77 77 75 75 74 76 76 76 75 75 70 57 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 19 22 22 27 29 33 31 34 33 35 32 33 28 23 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -5 -16 -16 -7 -5 -4 9 21 28 55 61 68 96 140 107 93 200 MB DIV 55 81 65 51 74 85 58 45 87 52 65 50 61 44 23 26 2 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 -2 -3 -6 -4 -8 -10 -15 -10 -5 -3 -1 2 LAND (KM) 502 501 495 481 480 502 560 695 718 768 846 889 955 1162 1314 1232 1335 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.3 104.0 104.7 105.3 106.9 108.8 110.8 112.8 114.6 116.4 118.0 119.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 13 8 5 9 HEAT CONTENT 48 40 29 19 16 25 21 16 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 11. 16. 24. 22. 26. 22. 23. 17. 16. 11. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 28. 40. 52. 56. 60. 54. 53. 46. 43. 35. 32. 25. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.0 102.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/23/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 10.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.76 8.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -9.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 46.7% 36.3% 25.1% 16.8% 18.9% 59.2% 38.7% Logistic: 13.7% 47.6% 29.6% 15.9% 8.8% 17.5% 28.5% 17.4% Bayesian: 17.0% 67.5% 53.6% 28.6% 8.8% 41.2% 39.7% 6.0% Consensus: 15.5% 53.9% 39.8% 23.2% 11.4% 25.9% 42.5% 20.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/23/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##