* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102017 07/23/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 41 48 51 54 58 60 62 64 64 65 64 63 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 41 48 51 54 58 60 62 64 64 65 64 63 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 38 38 39 40 39 39 40 42 44 48 49 50 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 13 7 8 3 5 7 8 8 7 12 13 16 16 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -2 -5 -1 -1 0 0 -4 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 343 352 357 347 332 331 172 179 173 118 104 66 69 56 62 50 49 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 144 143 142 143 144 141 137 138 139 135 139 138 134 126 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 69 68 67 67 66 67 64 64 62 62 64 69 73 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 14 17 16 16 18 18 18 19 20 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -44 -45 -45 -44 -48 -31 -23 1 13 30 33 52 43 75 104 77 200 MB DIV 21 41 35 44 54 13 17 -25 -8 19 38 21 27 31 30 36 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 3 2 0 -2 0 -1 0 1 5 LAND (KM) 1051 1076 1103 1136 1172 1240 1322 1403 1498 1604 1731 1862 1997 1839 1715 1344 1160 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.7 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.4 115.9 116.5 117.0 118.0 119.1 120.2 121.4 122.7 124.1 125.6 127.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 0 8 11 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 22 23 23 20 18 19 14 10 14 17 17 16 12 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 25. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 16. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29. 30. 29. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.6 114.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 TEN 07/23/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.52 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.23 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 16.7% 14.9% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 13.4% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.2% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.6% 5.8% 5.1% 3.9% 0.0% 0.2% 5.6% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 TEN 07/23/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##