* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092017 07/22/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 44 53 67 80 88 90 99 99 98 95 95 92 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 44 53 67 80 88 90 99 99 98 95 95 92 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 45 57 69 79 86 89 91 87 79 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 2 2 3 4 9 4 4 9 9 8 12 11 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 10 7 5 1 -4 -6 -8 -7 -2 -1 0 -5 -3 -4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 24 47 93 118 176 169 141 127 98 5 3 15 6 18 31 15 360 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.2 27.2 26.7 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 152 154 154 156 153 148 153 154 152 153 148 137 129 127 129 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 73 74 78 79 79 76 75 76 76 74 72 69 72 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 18 22 25 27 32 33 34 35 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR 36 35 24 17 9 2 -1 6 7 3 13 14 9 52 56 29 65 200 MB DIV 7 24 38 46 52 78 109 117 116 55 32 71 27 75 47 2 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 -5 0 -1 -5 -7 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 700 664 639 601 575 543 503 449 449 472 539 609 588 951 932 846 933 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.7 11.2 12.2 13.3 14.4 15.3 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.1 97.1 98.2 99.1 100.0 101.6 103.2 104.7 106.2 107.7 109.3 111.0 112.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 13 12 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 11 13 16 33 41 17 20 28 16 16 8 5 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. 36. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 6. 12. 17. 18. 24. 23. 22. 21. 20. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 23. 37. 50. 58. 60. 69. 69. 68. 65. 65. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.4 96.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.39 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 19.0% 13.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 53.1% Logistic: 10.9% 66.3% 42.8% 29.2% 2.1% 43.4% 33.3% 47.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 4.0% 6.7% 7.9% Consensus: 5.9% 30.5% 19.1% 13.0% 0.7% 15.8% 19.1% 36.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##