* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/21/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 49 49 47 46 45 43 40 36 34 31 28 27 25 22 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 49 49 47 46 45 43 40 36 34 31 28 27 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 50 49 46 42 40 39 37 35 33 30 27 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 9 9 7 7 6 4 4 6 10 14 19 27 30 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 0 2 0 -1 -4 -3 -4 -4 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 235 228 232 251 258 259 319 350 346 259 254 220 238 244 256 268 269 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.0 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 139 140 140 139 133 123 119 119 114 113 112 116 113 113 119 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 64 61 58 56 53 45 40 37 36 31 31 31 30 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 18 17 18 17 16 15 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 32 35 43 43 41 49 38 40 25 31 26 18 9 5 12 20 25 200 MB DIV 13 -2 11 26 33 35 24 15 10 -11 11 2 7 -2 3 -25 -33 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -5 0 0 3 2 4 0 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1385 1435 1493 1568 1647 1816 1951 2074 2190 2264 2105 1956 1799 1625 1419 1358 1198 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.3 122.3 123.4 124.5 126.7 128.7 130.4 132.1 133.6 135.0 136.3 137.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 7 8 8 7 7 9 6 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 14 8 9 11 14 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -16. -19. -22. -23. -25. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.8 120.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.14 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 20.5% 18.1% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 7.6% 6.3% 4.8% 0.0% 0.1% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##