* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/21/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 53 53 51 51 46 47 46 43 40 38 36 34 32 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 53 53 53 51 51 46 47 46 43 40 38 36 34 32 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 53 52 49 45 43 40 39 37 36 34 31 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 8 9 12 10 6 6 4 2 4 5 7 11 13 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 -1 0 2 -1 -2 -4 -5 2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 210 242 224 231 242 247 294 331 359 8 321 299 279 257 252 256 280 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.3 26.5 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.3 25.0 24.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 143 138 138 140 137 128 119 118 116 112 108 105 112 109 111 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 69 68 66 66 62 59 56 51 47 42 38 33 27 28 27 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 19 19 19 19 17 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 36 43 42 42 41 37 27 23 23 22 15 -1 24 13 23 200 MB DIV 24 16 1 13 26 32 19 32 21 9 19 7 -21 -8 -7 -32 -27 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 0 3 3 6 4 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1276 1326 1372 1428 1490 1652 1794 1927 2054 2180 2220 2059 1912 1832 1551 1528 1363 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.6 17.1 17.9 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.7 120.7 121.8 122.8 125.0 127.0 128.9 130.7 132.4 133.9 135.3 136.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 8 6 8 7 4 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 14 7 7 11 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. -0. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. -4. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.9 118.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 22.1% 18.5% 14.2% 9.9% 12.5% 15.1% 11.7% Logistic: 2.6% 7.2% 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 10.2% 7.0% 5.2% 3.5% 4.5% 5.2% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##