* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/21/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 52 53 56 56 56 52 52 50 47 45 41 38 36 33 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 52 53 56 56 56 52 52 50 47 45 41 38 36 33 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 49 50 49 47 44 42 41 40 39 37 34 30 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 6 7 8 11 9 9 4 3 3 6 7 12 15 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 0 0 1 0 -4 -3 0 0 2 0 0 -5 -4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 89 205 248 217 208 233 233 277 326 348 301 326 251 284 268 268 275 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.6 27.6 26.9 25.8 25.9 25.7 25.3 25.5 24.4 24.5 24.5 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 148 144 139 140 141 133 121 122 119 115 117 106 108 106 111 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 76 73 70 69 68 64 59 54 49 46 43 38 38 39 32 29 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 20 19 20 19 19 19 17 17 15 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 37 39 36 41 47 43 58 54 62 55 63 60 59 6 45 42 47 200 MB DIV 25 24 28 17 12 21 31 30 3 25 19 -13 5 -12 -26 -23 -44 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 0 1 0 -3 -5 -5 0 1 2 4 3 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1252 1307 1360 1404 1456 1600 1784 1943 2091 2222 2227 2080 1935 2095 1642 1579 1370 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.3 16.8 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.8 119.8 120.9 121.9 124.1 126.4 128.7 130.7 132.4 134.0 135.3 136.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 10 9 8 7 7 7 9 12 6 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 21 16 8 10 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 11. 11. 7. 7. 5. 2. -0. -4. -7. -9. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.4 117.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 22.9% 18.0% 13.4% 9.6% 11.6% 15.7% 12.8% Logistic: 8.2% 24.8% 9.9% 6.4% 1.7% 4.5% 2.1% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 17.4% 9.5% 6.6% 3.8% 5.5% 6.0% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##