* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/21/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 57 60 63 62 60 58 55 54 52 49 47 46 43 41 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 57 60 63 62 60 58 55 54 52 49 47 46 43 41 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 52 54 56 58 55 51 49 47 46 44 43 40 38 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 2 8 8 11 9 5 4 5 5 4 5 10 18 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 0 3 -1 1 -3 0 -3 1 0 1 -1 -6 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 99 103 186 213 201 213 219 294 318 349 343 308 305 287 268 286 281 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.6 26.0 25.8 26.1 25.4 25.7 25.2 25.5 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 144 146 144 142 139 130 123 121 124 116 119 114 115 111 114 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 79 77 73 71 70 68 62 59 54 51 47 47 45 43 37 35 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 20 20 21 20 20 21 20 20 18 16 16 15 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 34 42 43 43 49 52 60 64 58 61 48 47 37 22 34 -12 -1 200 MB DIV 35 34 34 36 23 21 40 6 22 12 34 21 18 -2 23 -10 -11 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 0 2 3 1 -4 -4 -4 3 3 5 5 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 1210 1259 1314 1362 1403 1529 1701 1868 2020 2166 2266 2090 1917 1855 1548 1693 1556 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.9 118.9 119.9 120.9 123.1 125.5 127.8 129.9 131.9 133.6 135.2 136.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 10 9 8 8 6 8 4 2 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 20 22 17 10 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 15. 18. 17. 15. 13. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. 1. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.2 116.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 27.2% 20.7% 15.6% 11.1% 13.7% 16.8% 13.1% Logistic: 11.9% 33.4% 14.9% 9.7% 3.6% 7.5% 4.4% 1.5% Bayesian: 2.1% 19.5% 3.7% 1.2% 0.5% 2.9% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 26.7% 13.1% 8.8% 5.0% 8.0% 7.3% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##