* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/19/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 65 61 55 46 37 31 29 25 20 21 19 20 21 20 20 V (KT) LAND 75 70 65 61 55 46 37 31 29 25 20 21 19 20 21 20 20 V (KT) LGEM 75 69 63 58 53 44 37 31 27 24 21 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 12 16 17 24 20 30 29 30 26 25 20 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 1 5 2 1 5 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 274 269 258 258 231 236 214 209 202 206 213 223 224 222 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.5 25.5 25.9 26.0 26.4 26.5 26.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 114 115 114 113 112 113 118 118 122 123 129 132 132 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.5 -55.2 -56.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 63 61 57 51 47 42 38 36 34 34 39 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 20 18 18 17 16 16 15 13 14 12 12 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 69 77 73 60 48 25 14 12 3 0 -7 -8 -27 -37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 15 23 6 -11 -6 13 1 15 5 15 32 15 21 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 6 6 6 6 11 10 6 6 8 5 7 3 1 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2082 2008 1935 1857 1779 1595 1413 1234 1048 857 657 476 336 326 424 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.2 135.9 136.5 137.2 137.9 139.6 141.3 143.0 144.8 146.7 148.8 150.9 153.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 14 19 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. -27. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -13. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -20. -29. -38. -44. -46. -50. -55. -54. -56. -55. -54. -55. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.2 135.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/19/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 417.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/19/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##