* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052017 07/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 52 54 56 57 59 62 63 66 68 69 71 74 78 79 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 52 54 56 57 59 62 63 66 68 69 71 74 78 79 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 55 57 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 8 9 16 18 15 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 286 264 251 260 282 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.1 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 152 152 151 142 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 153 150 152 152 151 142 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 11 11 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 57 59 59 60 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 14 28 29 30 31 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 0 8 38 61 62 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -2 -5 -9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 549 418 235 129 156 172 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.4 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.4 57.3 59.1 61.1 63.2 67.4 71.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 52 53 35 23 18 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 17. 18. 21. 23. 24. 26. 29. 33. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.4 55.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052017 DON 07/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 31.6% 18.8% 10.0% 9.5% 14.7% 16.0% 24.9% Logistic: 11.3% 43.1% 34.4% 17.5% 8.4% 11.2% 4.9% 9.5% Bayesian: 1.6% 20.9% 6.5% 0.3% 0.4% 1.5% 0.4% 8.9% Consensus: 7.9% 31.9% 19.9% 9.3% 6.1% 9.1% 7.1% 14.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052017 DON 07/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052017 DON 07/18/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 50 52 54 56 57 59 62 63 66 68 69 71 74 78 79 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 50 52 53 55 58 59 62 64 65 67 70 74 75 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 47 48 50 53 54 57 59 60 62 65 69 70 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 39 40 42 45 46 49 51 52 54 57 61 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT