* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 86 81 77 66 58 52 46 39 35 29 26 22 21 19 21 V (KT) LAND 95 90 86 81 77 66 58 52 46 39 35 29 26 22 21 19 21 V (KT) LGEM 95 88 81 74 68 57 49 42 37 32 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 5 5 4 9 6 12 11 23 25 29 24 28 24 21 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 7 8 11 2 5 5 10 10 9 7 5 1 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 192 239 257 251 239 217 263 267 244 236 231 236 242 254 262 272 257 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.7 25.8 25.5 25.0 24.9 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.8 26.2 26.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 129 125 119 120 117 112 111 117 115 117 123 127 129 133 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.8 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 60 62 61 56 51 49 48 50 49 47 41 37 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 25 25 23 23 22 20 18 17 14 12 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 31 35 30 34 51 58 71 48 41 29 21 19 23 7 -4 -19 -22 200 MB DIV 75 60 26 27 49 65 24 0 3 26 19 0 18 -12 7 -10 3 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 5 8 8 3 3 6 6 6 5 8 0 7 -2 5 LAND (KM) 2299 2314 2330 2273 2201 2069 1913 1748 1565 1393 1233 1094 955 585 354 119 34 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.9 132.5 133.1 133.7 134.3 135.4 136.8 138.3 140.0 141.6 143.1 144.4 145.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 12 14 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -16. -23. -29. -34. -38. -41. -44. -45. -47. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -18. -18. -19. -18. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -18. -29. -37. -43. -49. -56. -60. -66. -69. -73. -74. -75. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 14.4 131.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.38 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 547.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.30 -1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 12.0% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 3.2% 2.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.1% 4.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##