* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 100 98 95 85 74 66 60 51 44 38 33 27 24 22 22 V (KT) LAND 105 102 100 98 95 85 74 66 60 51 44 38 33 27 24 22 20 V (KT) LGEM 105 100 94 88 83 73 63 53 45 39 34 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 3 2 5 7 13 11 15 21 31 33 34 30 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 1 5 8 8 1 5 6 7 1 0 -1 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 201 213 214 122 174 294 255 268 290 261 240 240 245 258 268 271 268 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.5 25.9 26.0 25.7 25.1 25.1 25.7 25.3 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 137 135 134 127 121 122 119 113 113 120 116 120 125 128 133 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.3 -53.8 -54.7 -55.0 -55.5 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 61 61 61 59 57 55 53 53 52 52 50 44 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 26 26 25 24 23 22 21 19 17 14 12 10 8 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 35 36 34 33 39 52 63 59 59 38 40 20 21 19 13 2 -6 200 MB DIV 68 68 78 113 76 25 65 24 0 0 -1 4 -3 -4 -13 -5 -32 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 0 1 4 13 8 4 4 4 2 4 1 0 1 -3 LAND (KM) 2230 2251 2276 2300 2326 2240 2089 1931 1766 1583 1402 1208 1017 822 513 217 -4 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.7 130.5 131.3 132.0 132.7 134.0 135.3 136.7 138.2 139.9 141.6 143.4 145.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 9 8 9 9 11 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 5 4 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -19. -27. -34. -40. -45. -49. -51. -53. -55. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 7. 4. 1. -3. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -10. -20. -31. -39. -45. -54. -61. -67. -72. -78. -81. -83. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 13.2 129.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.06 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 573.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.27 -1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 19.1% 15.4% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 8.1% 6.9% 3.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 9.1% 7.4% 5.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##