* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 101 101 97 90 81 73 66 58 52 48 43 37 33 29 26 V (KT) LAND 105 102 101 101 97 90 81 73 66 58 52 48 43 37 33 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 105 101 96 92 87 77 68 59 50 44 39 33 27 22 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 4 2 3 5 3 11 11 13 18 28 30 31 33 30 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 3 3 5 9 0 4 6 8 10 4 5 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 220 191 178 149 123 241 277 249 282 275 256 242 243 248 248 255 272 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.2 25.7 25.7 25.4 25.0 25.6 25.4 25.5 25.9 26.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 144 138 136 134 124 119 119 116 113 119 116 118 122 124 131 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -53.8 -54.5 -55.2 -55.7 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 60 61 61 60 58 57 53 53 52 53 52 46 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 26 28 25 26 26 24 23 21 20 19 17 14 12 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 19 33 35 38 37 43 54 60 61 45 45 38 31 25 19 22 12 200 MB DIV 91 56 62 77 100 42 53 37 7 -13 5 39 19 11 17 9 -1 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -2 0 2 7 9 4 5 11 10 11 5 2 -6 2 LAND (KM) 2182 2222 2254 2280 2308 2303 2146 1999 1844 1660 1468 1254 1052 930 652 546 271 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.4 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.8 129.7 130.6 131.4 132.2 133.5 134.8 136.1 137.5 139.2 141.0 143.0 144.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 7 9 9 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 9 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -17. -25. -32. -38. -44. -47. -49. -51. -54. -56. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -8. -15. -24. -32. -39. -47. -53. -57. -62. -68. -72. -76. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 12.9 128.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.09 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 550.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.30 -1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 19.3% 15.5% 11.2% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 6.1% 4.6% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 8.5% 6.7% 4.6% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##