* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 108 109 111 109 107 101 96 84 77 72 65 58 53 47 41 V (KT) LAND 110 108 108 109 111 109 107 101 96 84 77 72 65 58 53 47 41 V (KT) LGEM 110 107 105 105 106 105 99 88 74 65 58 52 46 38 31 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 4 2 2 1 4 6 9 13 19 25 35 29 30 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -4 -2 0 7 6 4 -1 2 9 12 8 6 1 0 SHEAR DIR 346 21 40 80 128 147 158 265 283 289 285 273 267 266 262 254 259 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 27.7 27.5 26.6 26.0 25.5 25.1 24.9 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 147 148 141 139 129 122 117 113 111 118 120 119 120 125 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -53.1 -54.1 -54.5 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 67 64 59 56 55 53 49 46 46 47 48 44 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 26 28 28 30 28 29 25 24 24 21 20 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 13 12 12 16 19 30 33 45 56 57 54 56 44 37 30 14 10 200 MB DIV 63 74 82 93 115 73 100 54 34 -4 -13 -21 -2 -14 -21 -21 9 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -7 -6 -4 -3 -2 4 9 5 6 8 11 9 7 4 1 LAND (KM) 1964 2023 2088 2151 2216 2307 2347 2157 1982 1821 1656 1475 1302 1094 814 772 537 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.8 126.0 127.2 128.4 129.5 131.5 133.3 134.9 136.4 137.8 139.3 141.0 142.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 7 8 8 8 8 11 7 6 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 33 20 13 11 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -16. -25. -32. -39. -45. -49. -51. -53. -56. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 5. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 1. -1. -3. -9. -14. -26. -33. -38. -45. -52. -57. -63. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 11.7 124.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.09 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.89 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 387.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 -2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 21.9% 16.7% 12.2% 10.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.1% 1.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 8.9% 6.2% 4.5% 3.7% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##