* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 108 107 106 108 105 104 95 87 81 74 69 61 56 51 45 V (KT) LAND 115 110 108 107 106 108 105 104 95 87 81 74 69 61 56 51 45 V (KT) LGEM 115 110 107 105 104 103 99 90 78 66 58 54 48 41 33 26 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 6 6 1 1 3 6 6 14 18 26 29 30 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -3 -3 -1 5 7 3 0 -2 7 10 13 13 7 0 SHEAR DIR 353 1 14 8 27 106 271 265 253 243 275 272 274 271 270 252 261 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 27.6 27.2 26.3 26.0 25.5 25.1 25.3 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 149 147 147 140 135 126 122 117 113 115 119 116 117 122 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 69 65 61 57 55 53 51 44 44 44 44 44 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 24 25 25 28 30 30 27 26 25 23 24 20 20 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 19 18 16 13 8 15 26 27 35 61 66 71 58 56 49 27 25 200 MB DIV 65 91 77 58 79 105 71 81 35 43 6 -3 -21 -35 -12 0 9 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -10 -9 -8 -4 -3 0 5 6 8 7 7 7 8 9 2 LAND (KM) 1913 1967 2029 2092 2162 2287 2370 2245 2061 1910 1743 1591 1428 1223 997 994 789 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.3 14.1 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.4 124.6 125.8 127.1 128.3 130.6 132.5 134.2 135.8 137.1 138.6 140.0 141.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 10 10 8 8 7 7 7 8 10 5 5 9 HEAT CONTENT 49 47 40 23 13 11 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -18. -27. -35. -42. -48. -52. -55. -57. -59. -63. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 4. 2. 1. -2. -1. -5. -5. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -8. -9. -7. -10. -11. -20. -27. -34. -41. -46. -54. -59. -64. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 11.2 123.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.06 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.76 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 366.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 -2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 15.8% 12.8% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/15/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##